As a professional sports bettor, my goal is to find and exploit many small edges over a long period of time to earn a compounding return.
Winning 55% of games is very significant, and with very conservative bet sizing, you can grow your return very quickly.
Bob Sports’ NFL Best Bet sides were an incredible 66-26 (71.7%), but that record was enhanced by winning a very large percentage of close games (31-12 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or less) rather than splitting the close ones.
It still would have been a great season on NFL Best Bet sides (62%) if the close games had been 50% but I still can’t expect the new model to win 60%-plus on sides based on that one season – although the play-by-play model back-tested at a very profitable 56% winners.
Of course, as in any game of chance, there is variability in the actual results and just because you have won 55% in the past and expect to win 55% in the future doesn’t mean that you’re going to win 55% this upcoming season.
Gambling And Sports Essays
There is variance in sports betting, as there is in most investments, and I calculate the standard deviation to figure out how much of my bankroll I can safely wager on each game during the season to accommodate potential negative swings while having very little chance of exhausting my bankroll.
I often hear amateur gamblers erroneously claim that winning 55% of games isn’t even enough to beat juice.
As demonstrated above, a bettor only needs to win 52.4% to break even, and a 55% bettor will be very profitable in the long run if they pursue an optimal money management strategy.
Any short term win rates of around 60% or higher are simply due to blind, short-term luck.
For instance, last year (2016) in the first season using a new NFL play-by-play model, Dr.